Investigation on the temporal evolution of the covid’19 pandemic: prediction for Togo

A state of health emergency has been decreed by the Togolese government since April 01 for a period of 3 months, with the introduction of a curfew which ended on June 9, following the first case of contamination of the corona Sars- Cov-2 in Togo, case registered on March 06, 2020. This first wave of contamination started from March 19. The data observed in Togo are cases tested positive and which are cured using a protocol based on the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. This manuscript offers a forecast on the number of daily infections and its peak (or maximum), then the cumulative numbers of those infected with the covid’19 pandemic. The forecasts are based on evolution models which are well known in the literature, which consist in evaluating the evolution of the cumulative numbers of infected and a Gaussian model representing an estimate of the number of daily infections for this first wave of contamination. over a period of 8 months from the sample of observed data.